Those who acquired a few dozen bitcoins a few years ago with a minimal investment do not really need to work anymore today. What one from the rise of cryptocurrency can learn Martin Weigert concludes in his column Weigert World.
Until recently, there was no decision or non-decision in my life that I regretted. But since the rise of the crypto-currency Bitcoin , this is no longer true. More and more often I catch myself thinking that I had a tremendous opportunity to get away with it. I’m not the only one guaranteed.
I am particularly annoyed because I have had the development of the cryptocurrency at least from the sidelines since their early days in view. A search in my old blog posts shows that I mentioned Bitcoin for the first time in a review of Digital Year 2011 . However, it took until February 2014, until I became active and for a test report to be written testally 0.1 Bitcoin increased . I paid then 50 euros, the BTC rate was already at 500 euros. After many ups and downs he ranks at the time of writing this article at around 3,000 euros.
And of course, in the meantime, I’ve spent about half of that 0.1 BTC again, also for testing purposes. For senseless stuff, just to try it out. I remember once sending a mini amount to somebody at the Republica conference to test my smartphone wallet. The equivalent would probably be 20 or 30 euros today. Only a few days ago I restored my old bitcoin ownership of about 0.1 BTC – of course with a corresponding massive mark-up.
Of course, “Hate, Ifs and Buts” does not bring anything, luckily it’s just a missed opportunity, not a fatal wrong decision with a life-ruining character. Nevertheless, it would be a fine thing to be able to dispose of a generous “basic income” as a result of a single, relatively low-cost decision; like the gentleman that is being reported here (but of course you could also use capital “productively”, for example to start a business or to support other projects that make sense).
But I do not write this column to complain about my missed opportunity, but because of the example of Bitcoin two highly exciting conclusions or lessons can be drawn:
1. Reverse error, loss aversion and the importance of curiosity
It is always tempting to fall back on the so-called retrograde error, according to the motto: “One could already have guessed the success of Bitcoin back then”. The fact is, at no time since the first Bitcoin transaction in early 2009, could anybody have reliably predicted how the cryptocurrency and its value would develop through the mysterious Bitcoin inventor known as Satoshi Nakamoto.
That being said, I would have liked a different logic from myself then. Namely, “I do not think Bitcoin will ever be a big hit. But I find the technology exciting, and I do not really care financially to buy myself a few BTC for 100 euros. ” Instead, I watched the action, but I initially lacked the curiosity and energy to push myself. Probably loss aversion was alsoin the game; So the tendency of people to annoy over a loss of 100 euros more than to look forward to a profit of 100 euros. Buying bitcoins for “real” money would be a loss for me at first. Lesson for me: be even more curious and take care not to be too led by loss aversion when making small capital investment decisions.
2. Prosperity only for those who already have everything? Except then, at Bitcoin
It is often said that material financial prosperity can only be achieved if one can already demonstrate considerable prosperity. Gladly summarized by the famous saying “The rich get richer”. With Bitcoin however other rules applied. In principle, every woman and every man had the opportunity to get a decent financial cushion with a minimal investment. All that was required was a computer / smartphone with internet access and enough financial scope to invest at least a few dozen Bitcoins in the early stages. In western countries, this option was therefore open to the majority of citizens. However, very few of them have sufficient information and interest in the new technology that has just been created.
My concern is not to refute the thesis cited in the previous paragraph. But it’s fascinating to be aware of how low the boarding barrier at Bitcoin actually was – if only you knew it.
I refer in this analysis only to the past and make no statements on how the crypto currency is to be considered today, or what should be kept from their current course. But if Bitcoin shows us one, then that happens now and then an event that breaks with all the otherwise known rules and laws, and which gives each and every one completely unexpected possibilities. Bitcoin is a black swan . At least that would be the case for those who, a few years ago, bought some of the coins for a low three-digit sum of pure experimentation.